资料：Childrenbackatschool,nightsslowlystartingtodrawinandtheweathermorechangeable.Theseasonsareturningandafteraneerilycalmsummerforfinancialmarkets,there'sawhiffofuncertaintyintheair.Bondyieldsareupfromtheirlows,andtherelentlessmigrationofglobalcapitaltowardsanyasset,anywhere,withsomeyield,isslowing. Theconcernisthegrowingawarenessofcentralbanks'waningabilitytoboostgrowthwithever-lowerinterestratesandever-biggerpurchasesofassets.Thedebateaboutif,whenandhowslowlytheUSFederalReservewillraiseinterestdragson,butifdownwardpressureonglobalbondyieldsfromtheEuropeanCentralBank(EC B)andtheBankofJapan's(BOJ)largesseisdrawingtoaclose,that'sabiggermilestoneformarkets. Aworldofhigherbondyieldsisonewherethepressuretoseekyieldinexoticplacesisdiminished.It'salsoaworldwherethecapitalgainsthataccompaniedfallingyieldsbecomecapitallossesandinvestorsquestionthemeritofbondsovercash(orequities). Thissearchforyieldinexoticplaceshas,sincetheendofJanuary,helpedtheBrazilianrealgainmorethan20%againsttheUSdollar,withtheRussianroublemanagingalmostasmuch.Thedollar,itself,hasfallenbackisby7.5%fallintrade-weightedterms,unwindingnearly40%ofthegainsithasseensincemind-2014. There'snoneedtopanicaboutbondyieldsrising,becauseraterisesinJapanortheEurozoneareyearsawayandtheFed'sstilltinkering.But10-yearyieldsonbothGermanandJapanesegovernmentbondyieldsfellbelowzeroforthefirsttimeinlateJune.Theyhavebeenedginghigherthroughthesummer.It'salmostasifinvestorsreallyaren'tthatkeenontyingmoneyupatnegativeyieldsforthatlong–whynotsticktocash? IntheUS,estimatesof"neutral"realinterestratesaretumblingtoaroundzero.Estimatesofhowmuchslackthereisleftinthelabourmarketarebeingrevisedupandafterfiveyearswhenproductivitygrowthhasaveragedameasly0.5%,there'swidespreadacceptancethatit'sunlikelytoacceleratebymagic. Butevenifwetakeallofthisintoaccount,marketsarenowpricinginanextraordinarilyslowpaceofratehikesbytheFed–fromtheircurrent0.25-0.5%range,toabout0.75%bytheendof2017andto1%bytheendof2018. GDPgrowthstilloscillatesaround2%,theFed'sfavouredmeasureofinflationisat1.6%andtheunemploymentrateistrendinglower.Thepricingofthefuturepathofshorttermratesseemstoolowevenforthe"newnormal"economicenvironment. AllofthesecurrencieshavegainedagainstthepoundandIcan'tseethatchanging.ToomuchimportanceshouldnotbeplacedoneitherthecollapseinconfidenceimmediatelyafterthevotetoleavetheEUorthesubsequentbounce. TheeconomicimpactofleavingtheEUwillbefeltthroughdelayedinvestmentdecisionsasaresultofuncertaintyaboutwhenandonwhattermsithappens.Adebilitatingratherthanacorrosiveimpactontheeconomywillbeseeninslower,butpositivegrowth.Itwillalsobefeltinfurther(slower)sterlingweakness. TheBankofEnglandhasalreadycutpolicyratesfrom0.5%to0.25%,andthere'smoretocomefromboththeBankandthepoundoverthenextyear.A5%fallfromherewouldtakethepoundcloseto€1.1,andwecouldseeitfallbelow$1.25astheFederalReserveedgesrateshigher. AccordingtothelastparagraphwhichofthefollowingsisNottrue? AfterBritainleavingthe E.Utheinvestmentdecisionofinvestorshasbeenaffected A.AfterBritainleavingthe E.Utheinvestmentdecisionofinvestorshasbeenaffected B.AfterBritainleavingthe E.U,thevalueofthepoundwillbeseenweakenedfurther
A.After Britain leaving the B.U, the fed takes this opportunity to raise the rate C.After Britain leaving the D.U, the Bank of England has already cut policy rates to 0.25%正确答案A
