For most people involved in the production and trading of “soft” or agricultural commodities, this is proving to be a grim decade. Prices are in many cases at, or near, historic lows in real terms as markets struggle to cope with floods of surplus produce. And—with most soothsayers forecasting flat, or still lower, prices—the markets themselves have lost much of their allure. Speculators who profited handsomely from the price volatility of the 1970s have deserted soft commodities for the newer excitement of financial futures or the security and big yields afforded by the equity and money markets. It is strange, indeed, to observe that only 10 years have elapsed since many respected forecasters were warning of impending global shortages of basic; raw materials and foodstuffs.
对大多数从事非耐用初级商品或农产品生产和贸易的人来说，这十年无疑是严酷的十年。市场上充斥大量的过剩农产品，造成其实际价格在许多情况下处于或接近历史低点。而且——大多数预言家预言价格低迷，或者会更低——这些市场自身已极大地失去了吸引力。从二十世纪七十年代的价格变化中获利颇丰的投机者已舍弃了非耐用商品，而去追逐金融期货或有价证券带来的新刺激和股票及货币市场所提供的可观利润。确实令人感到不可思议的是，仅仅十年前，许多受人尊重的预言家警告说基本原材料和食物即将发生全球性短缺。
